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META: Cross-Target Pattern Transfer - Validated Hypothesis (Cycle 150)

Class: top-level meta-lesson (not target-specific) Banked: Cycle 150 (2026-05-18) Calibration evidence: Modular Account V2 (Cycle 141) banked patterns -> Base Azul (Cycle 150) Info-class findings

Thesis

Banked patterns from target A predict findings in target B at non-trivial accuracy, even when A and B are different protocol classes (e.g. ERC-6900 modular account vs OP-Stack rollup). This validates the moat thesis underlying the lessons-library asset class: a banked-pattern library is reusable IP that compounds across cycles, not single-target scratch notes.

Evidence (Cycle 150)

During the Base Azul LEARN-MODE pass, 7 distinct Info-class findings were extractable from the public audit corpus. On a first read of those 7 against the MA V2-banked pattern set:

Net: 57% one-shot Info-class transfer accuracy from a 1-target library to a different-class target.

Which classes transfer well (positive case studies)

Which classes don't transfer (negative case studies)

Calibration data

Severity class Cross-target transfer accuracy Sample size Confidence
Info ~57% (4/7) one-shot 1 cross-target pair (MA V2 -> Base Azul) LOW (n=1 pair)
Medium UNTESTED 0 n/a
High UNTESTED 0 n/a
Critical UNTESTED 0 n/a

Sample size warning: the 57% number comes from a single cross-target pair on Info-class only. High/Critical-class transfer is UNTESTED. Need 2-3 more deep-audit cycles before generalising. Treat 57% as a directional indicator, not a benchmark.

Implication for cycle ROI

What to bank from future cycles

Every new target's lessons-library entry should include a Section 4: Pattern Library Diff showing:

After 5-10 cross-target cycles, the calibration table above gets meaningful confidence intervals on Info / Medium / High / Critical.

Doctrinal hook for v0.next

The Saturation Skill v0.4+ should consider a --prior-library-overlap-score input: given a target's audit corpus + the banked lessons library, estimate the % of findings already predicted. If overlap is high (>50%): the cycle ROI is in LEARN-MODE banking rather than novel-Foundry hunting. This metric formalises what Cycle 150 did manually.

Generated 2026-07-02 13:15:04 UTC | auto-sync /15min